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Energy expert reveals why Australia's net zero future depends on a bold, inverted shift

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30 Oct, 2024

This post was originally published on Sustainability Matters

As political debate over the future of Australia’s energy landscape heats up amid the race to a net zero future, Dr Andrew Barton, an expert in energy innovation, is calling for a bold, united shift that turns the energy market ‘inside out’.

With renewable energy as the base, he’s advocating for an energy market flip mix where gas, nuclear and advanced storage systems could strategically complement renewables to build a resilient and diverse power grid that transcends political divides. But the country must first depoliticise the approach, he warns.

Barton is a senior executive within the Australasia Energy team at Hatch. With almost three decades in energy development across renewables and fossil fuels, Barton stressed the urgency of Australia’s transition. “We need to accelerate our efforts to drive forward the transformation of our energy and power systems.

“Our goal should be to forge a sustainable roadmap immediately, balancing an optimistic drive with a focus on Australia’s unique challenges and advantages.”

Barton, who led work on projects such the $30 billion SunCable AAPowerLink, advocates for a ‘turned inside out’ energy market that prioritises resilience and diversification. By expanding beyond any single power source, Australia can build a grid that not only decarbonises but also circumvents fluctuations in global demand and supply chains.

A balanced approach: renewables, resilience and reliable baseload power

Barton underscores the value of renewables as the foundational power source for Australia, complemented by peaking power from gas, hydro or even nuclear.

“As it stands, there is no one-size-fits-all solution for Australia,” Barton said.

“Right now, every source of energy should be on the table and as the technology continues to evolve.

“But the goal is a resilient, decarbonised grid where renewable energy leads, and fossil fuels bridge peak periods, as we refine technologies for long-duration storage.”

This approach includes exploring nuclear power, not as a baseload — historically its role — but as a potential peaking power option.

“There’s global precedent, like in Canada, for nuclear as a flexible resource. A tech evaluation here could be a game changer if nuclear can meet Australia’s peaking needs,” he suggested.

Harnessing diversity and ditching politics to bolster Australia’s energy future

The Australian Energy Market Operator (AEMO) is responsible for long-term planning and forecasting for the National Energy Market (NEM), as outlined in its biennially updated Integrated Service Plan (ISP). Barton explained that as technology and policy evolve, so too will this forecast for Australia’s energy mix.

His call for a political-free long-term approach to net zero energy strategies comes amid intense debate over renewable energy developments, particularly after the Illawarra in NSW was declared an offshore wind area this year.

Barton stressed that while solar and wind are essential, they alone cannot power Australia. “Solar PV is incredibly cost-effective compared to other sources, but it’s limited by daily production peaks and storage costs for oversupply,” he explained.

“When it comes to that storage, we have solutions for shifting short periods of solar peak generation in the middle of the day to peak demand periods, such as the early evening, but we lack sufficient cost-effective long-duration storage to bridge the gap across the full 24hr diurnal cycle.

“This means solar must be supplemented with energy storage to ensure we can keep our critical infrastructure such as hospitals running for 24 hours a day. A broad mix of energy storage solutions are critical to underpin the variable renewable generation from solar and wind.”

Barton added that grid resilience relies on broad geographic and technological diversity, as well as innovative storage solutions. A diversified supply approach, including offshore wind, decentralises the grid and enhances energy security.

“Shifting away from a ‘hub and spoke’ model allows for a more robust generation system,” he added.

Barton said offshore wind farms have been recently slammed for being expensive, and while there’s truth to that statement, he argues it’s more complicated.

“Offshore wind comes at a price — roughly double what it costs to develop onshore wind — and because of that it has attracted opposition as people think it will drive up power prices. But the cost of power to consumers is determined by the total mix of generation, not a single source,” he said.

“Offshore wind is a lot more reliable as it doesn’t have the same thermal effects that onshore wind can suffer from. Offshore wind farms don’t have the same land availability constraints and are generally closer to major transmission infrastructure connection points. Furthermore, we need the capacity and supply diversity that offshore wind can provide.”

Barton added that onshore wind farms are typically much smaller scale and needed to be located further from population centres. This therefore requires long-distance and high-capacity transmission systems to deliver the power to where it is needed.

Like solar, wind can be unreliable and susceptible to wind droughts, as has been experienced across South-Eastern Australia recently. However, a diverse combination of solar PV (domestic, commercial and utility scale), onshore and offshore wind, along with short- and long-duration storage will contribute a major part of the nation’s renewable energy mix, said Barton.

“Add to this mix peaking power supply from gas and hydro and we have a power generation system that can meet most, if not all, of near-term demand. But is this enough?”

Nuclear as a peaking power solution?

Right now, said Barton, our baseload power is predominantly coal, supplemented with wind and solar renewable generation and gas-fired and hydropower for peaking generation to meet daily power demands.

While the Liberal National Coalition are pushing for Nuclear Energy, Barton said if it could be used as peaking power, this could be a true game changer. A Moltex Energy report in Canada recently argued the same, even pointing its economic feasibility. But the nation has a long way to go yet as it lacks infrastructure, regulatory framework, or capability for nuclear energy right now, said Barton.

“Almost every country relying on nuclear to reach their renewable target is already using it,” he said.

“Right now, we need to understand the regulatory requirements to potentially introduce the technology. We need to closely monitor the evolution of nuclear technology and its associated costs. And we need to understand how nuclear may complement our renewable energy mix.”

Gas and hydrogen: transition fuels for today, preparing for tomorrow

Barton said gas has a transitional role as Australia phases out coal.

“Until renewable technology fully meets demand, gas-fired plants bridge gaps in our system. While hydrogen offers promise, cost barriers remain.

“Green hydrogen could be pivotal in the long term, but today’s green hydrogen tech limits and associated costs position gas as a critical interim peaking solution.

“Right now, we can’t achieve carbon-free energy security until other options are available to provide peaking or flexible generation power for when renewable generation and storage can’t meet total demands across the networks.

“The challenges aren’t insurmountable if we foster informed debate, focusing on both technological and environmental imperatives without divisive rhetoric.”

Dr Andrew Barton is the Director (Project Implementation) of Australia-Asia Energy at Hatch, a global multidisciplinary leader in engineering, operational and development projects in energy, metals, and infrastructure. He has decades of global engineering and project management experience in renewable and oil-and-gas energy development projects. His role at Hatch is to build its capability to successfully deliver energy projects.

Top image credit: iStock.com/Imgorthand

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jschoshinski
Thu, 11/07/2024 – 20:26

Under the Paris Agreement, countries devise blueprints for reducing greenhouse gas emissions and adapting to climate change called Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) and National Adaptation Plans (NAPs). Countries’ current commitments do not put the world on track to limit and avoid dangerous global warming but, at the same time, achieving the current goals in countries’ NDCs and NAPs is both difficult and complex. Supporting countries on their respective journeys—from more ambitious policy formulation and finance mobilization to investment promotion, implementation, and monitoring and evaluation—is foundational to achieving both country and global climate ambitions. 
USAID’s Comprehensive Action for Climate Change Initiative (CACCI), led by Abt Global, was launched at COP26 with the goal of identifying promising mitigation and adaptation investment opportunities with private sector partners to help countries meet their climate commitments and strengthen their climate resilience. It provides support to countries by helping them increase policy ambitions and legislative directives for emissions reductions and address critical implementation barriers related to information, finance, technology, capacity, and regulations. 
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Increasing Climate Policy Ambition Through Foundational Target Setting  
CACCI responds in tailored ways to direct requests from countries. For example, supporting higher-emitting countries, such as South Africa, takes a whole-of-economy approach in setting new emissions targets. CACCI is aiding South Africa’s Long-Term Low Emission Development Strategy (LT-LEDS) submission to the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change. The LT-LEDS provides a vision for achieving net-zero emissions by mid-century. It relies on evidence and modeling that informs the sectoral measures and investments for a whole-of-economy approach. 
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Mobilizing and Encouraging the Private Sector 
Given the scale of the climate crisis, achieving climate goals requires significant private investments. CACCI collaborated with the Boston Consulting Group to create an investment impact framework to help investors articulate adaptation and resilience project bankability in terms of feasibility, resilience impact, co-benefits, and profitability. CACCI worked with Nigeria’s National Council on Climate Change, building investment cases for six projects valued at over $1.1 billion in the agriculture, water, and energy sectors.   
Through the CACCI Partnership for Climate Action, private sector partners are articulating how their investments address climate change and support national climate agendas. For example, Genesis Energy is investing in renewable energy projects in Zambia to improve energy, health, and agriculture outcomes. Those projects include a hybrid solar and wind plant, solar electrification for healthcare facilities, and solar-powered cold chain storage to reduce post-harvest losses. 
Enhancing Accountability and Transparency
Effective monitoring, evaluation, and learning mechanisms are essential for tracking and reporting progress, identifying gaps, and adjusting strategies and ambitions. Understanding actions at local, national, and regional levels is crucial for benchmarking progress and to meeting global commitments. CACCI is supporting the African Union Commission through the development of a digital Monitoring, Reporting, and Learning Dashboard, which offers a consistent framework for member states to report on NDC implementation progress.  
Bridging the Gap Between Intention and Results 
Despite the difficulty of meeting climate commitments, countries must take action to avoid the most catastrophic impacts of climate change. As countries put in place the building blocks of progress, it is important to act, not just plan. Taking action, however imperfect, is the best shot at bridging the gap between intention and results. CACCI will continue to meet countries where they are on their journeys, providing tailored support to implement current goals, increase policy ambitions, and enhance resilience to climate impacts.

Teaser Text
CACC was launched at COP26 with the goal of identifying promising mitigation and adaptation investment opportunities with private sector partners to help countries meet their climate commitments and strengthen their climate resilience.

Subtitle
Balancing the Need for Higher Ambition with Continued Progress Towards Countries’ Climate Change Commitments

Publish Date
Thu, 11/07/2024 – 12:00

Author(s)

Dr. Molly Hellmuth
John Heermans
Dr. Emily Weeks

Hero Image
Jeffreys Bay Wind Farm.jpg

Blog Type
Blog Post

Strategic Objective

Adaptation
Mitigation

Region

Global

Topic

Adaptation
Emissions
Low Emission Development
Climate
Climate Change Integration
Climate Finance
Climate Strategy
Climate Strategy Implementation
Mitigation
Monitoring, Evaluation, and Learning
Partnership
Private Sector Engagement
Resilience

Country

Nigeria
South Africa
Zambia

Sectors

Climate

Projects

USAID Comprehensive Action for Climate Change Initiative (CACCI)

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