Enhancing Community Resilience: Addressing Compound and Cascading Climate Shocks

As climate change accelerates, communities around the world are increasingly vulnerable to both interrelated and simultaneous, seemingly unrelated, risks. Unlike isolated weather events, compound and cascading shocks—where multiple risks interact or one event triggers subsequent crises—pose a growing threat. Complex risk necessitates a shift in how development actors approach international development and climate resilience programs and policies, particularly by integrating comprehensive risk frameworks that account for interdependencies in critical systems.

Understanding Compound and Cascading Shocks

Compound and cascading shocks are distinct yet interconnected concepts. Compound shocks occur when multiple risks, such as extreme weather events, economic disruptions, or pandemics, coincide or interact, amplifying their collective impact. A recent example is the global food security crisis exacerbated by the war in Ukraine, the COVID-19 pandemic, and climate-induced droughts and floods in key agricultural regions. This combination of factors created a “perfect storm” that severely disrupted food supplies and pushed millions into hunger.

Cascading shocks, on the other hand, are triggered when one initial event causes a series of subsequent crises, typically across interconnected systems. The 2020-2022 California drought is one example: historical drought led to a variety of cascading shocks, including declines in agricultural production, wildfires and deteriorating air quality, and a strain on energy supply. These shocks had their own set of impacts—both individually and in combination—including $3 billion in crop revenue losses, health emergencies and increased healthcare costs, biodiversity loss and increased greenhouse gas emissions, and higher energy costs.

Policy and Planning Recommendations

To the extent that development actors are integrating climate risk into their work, we tend to assess the potential impacts of risk by looking at one hazard and sector at a time. Given the growing frequency and severity of these interconnected risks, development actors—including government policymakers, donors, and implementers—must adopt a comprehensive approach to integrating risk into international development and resilience programs and policies, meaning we must consider the possibilities of compound and cascading risk. 

These concerns are not unique to the Global South. The U.S. Government’s Fifth National Climate Assessment (NCA5), particularly Chapter 17 on “Climate Effects on US International Interests,” highlights the increasing importance of accounting for system interdependency in risk management. This involves recognizing how different systems—such as energy, water, food, and health—are interconnected, even across borders and hemispheres, and how a failure in one area can cascade into others. 

To effectively manage these risks, development actors should prioritize the following actions:

1. Adopt Comprehensive Risk Frameworks: Incorporate strategies that account for the interaction of multiple risks, ensuring that resilience-strengthening efforts robustly address interconnected systems and risks. Tools such as scenario planning, stress testing, and systems mapping can help to ensure programs and policies are developed with a focus on resilience to complex risk.
2. Strengthen Interdisciplinary Collaboration: Encourage collaboration across sectors and disciplines to address the multifaceted nature of compound and cascading shocks. 
3. Incorporate Adaptive Management: Develop and implement adaptive management processes, allowing actors to respond quickly to unexpected interactions and impacts.

Opportunities to Address These Shocks

Recognizing and addressing compound and cascading risk is essential for enhancing community resilience. As such, National Adaptation Plans and Nationally Determined Contributions are key opportunities to focus on resilience to complex risk. USAID’s Comprehensive Action for Climate Change Initiative (CACCI) is well-positioned to strengthen risk management by helping countries use comprehensive risk frameworks while designing their climate policies and taking climate action. For example, CACCI is supporting the African Union in implementing its Climate Change and Resilient Development Strategy and Action Plan. This support includes enhancing coordination between regional economic communities and Member States in monitoring and evaluating progress on addressing transboundary and complex climate risks. 

Government policymakers, donors, and implementers can also follow the actions above to strengthen resilience to complex risk in other programs and policies. Together, we can create more robust and resilient systems and communities despite the increasingly complex challenges posed by climate change.