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New Climate Risk Profiles Available to Help Missions Strengthen Resilience

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11 Dec, 2024

This post was originally published on Climate Links

New Climate Risk Profiles Available to Help Missions Strengthen Resilience
jschoshinski
Tue, 12/10/2024 – 19:06

As 2024 comes to a close, countries around the world are experiencing the impacts of climate change. Shifting rainfall patterns, rising temperatures and sea levels, and receding glaciers are creating cascading impacts on people, food systems, ecosystems, and economic structures. 

In the past year, climate change has intensified extreme weather events like record-breaking floods in southern Brazil and the Sahara. The impacts of these climate stressors are not distributed equally across all populations, geographies, and sectors. As climate variability and change accelerate, the past no longer provides a reliable indication of what the future will bring.

To combat this uncertainty, USAID is updating its country-level climate risk profiles (CRPs) to improve climate risk management and support adaptation and resilience efforts. Climate risk is one of many factors Missions consider when making programming decisions. The Agency’s climate risk management process enables Missions to proceed with programming despite high climate risks by enhancing situational awareness to achieve the best development outcomes.

How can USAID use Climate Risk Profiles?

CRPs are a tool for USAID Missions and operating units to understand how climate stressors may affect countries’ economies, populations, and resources. The profiles help guide strategic planning processes, including by:

  • Supporting the development of Country Development Cooperation Strategies by indicating priority areas for addressing climate impacts;
  • Serving as a resource for implementing USAID’s climate risk management process during activity design and implementation;
  • Helping Missions achieve the Agency’s resilience targets; and, 
  • Advancing U.S. Government efforts to help countries and communities adapt to and manage the impacts of climate change. 

CRPs provide an overview of current and projected climate stressors based on an intermediate emissions scenario. The profiles further illustrate climate risks to specific sectors and critical groups, acknowledging local populations’ unique skills and knowledge in addressing climate risks. These considerations can guide program design and shape investments to maximize value by ensuring relevance and impact under a changing climate.

What’s new in the 2024 update? 

The 2024 CRPs recognize that climate impacts disproportionately affect overburdened and underserved communities, which can include women, children, Indigenous Peoples, and persons living with disabilities. Also new to the CRPs is an overview of climate finance, capturing high-level information on adaptation investments to help Missions better understand the finance landscape and identify gaps and opportunities to target investments. Finally, the updated CRPs include visual depictions of projected climate changes and associated impacts overlaid across country maps. 

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Map of Uzbekistan pointing out where climate impacts are happening

Example of a new map from the Uzbekistan Climate Risk Profile.

What’s next?

USAID released the first updated CRP earlier this year: Ethiopia. In addition to the sections outlined above, this CRP explores how climate change is projected to impact key agriculture and crop production, livestock, water resources, and human health. 

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A table summarizing key sector impacts from the Ethiopia Climate Risk Profile.

USAID also published four additional Climate Risk Profiles in 2024: Libya, Uzbekistan, Jamaica, and the Philippines. These profiles explore additional sectors, including tourism, infrastructure, clean energy, urban and coastal zones, One Health, education, and ecosystems. 

These newly released CRPs, which were developed by the USAID Climate Adaptation Support Activity (CASA), will be followed by dozens more over the next few months.

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USAID is updating its country-level climate risk profiles to improve climate risk management and support adaptation and resilience efforts.

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Tue, 12/10/2024 – 12:00

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Land water loss causes sea level rise in 21st century

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An international team of scientists, led jointly by The University of Melbourne and Seoul National University, has found global water storage on land has plummeted since the start of the 21st century, overtaking glacier melt as the leading cause of sea level rise and measurably shifting the Earth’s pole of rotation.

Published in Science, the research combined global soil moisture data estimated by the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecast (ECMWF) Reanalysis v5 (ERA5), global mean sea level measurements and observations of Earth’s pole movement in order to estimate changes in terrestrial (land) water storage (TWS) from 1979 to 2016.

“The study raises critical questions about the main drivers of declining water storage on land and whether global lands will continue to become drier,” University of Melbourne author Professor Dongryeol Ryu said.

“Water constantly cycles between land and oceans, but the current rate of water loss from land is outpacing its replenishment. This is potentially irreversible because it’s unlikely this trend will reverse if global temperatures and evaporative demand continue to rise at their current rates. Without substantial changes in climate patterns, the imbalance in the water cycle is likely to persist, leading to a net loss of water from land to oceans over time.”

Between 2000 and 2002, soil moisture decreased by around 1614 gigatonnes (1 Gt equals 1 km3 of water) — nearly double Greenland’s ice loss of about 900 Gt in 2002–2006. From 2003 to 2016, soil moisture depletion continued, with an additional 1009 Gt lost.

Soil moisture had not recovered as of 2021, with little likelihood of recovery under present climate conditions. The authors say this decline is corroborated by independent observations of global mean sea level rise (~4.4 mm) and Earth’s polar shift (~45 cm in 2003–2012).

Water loss was most pronounced across East and Central Asia, Central Africa, and North and South America. In Australia, the growing depletion has impacted parts of Western Australia and south-eastern Australia, including western Victoria, although the Northern Territory and Queensland saw a small replenishment of soil moisture.

Image credit: iStock.com/ZU_09

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